S&P 500 Price Cycles: Gains and Losses
Here is a an analysis of inflation-adjusted monthly closing prices for the S&P 500 from 1881 to now. Price data from ONLINE DATA ROBERT SHILLER.
Log Adjusted Closing Prices (Splits & Dividends) are particularly useful for multi-year periods of analysis.
Cycle Threshold Sensitivity (%) Min Swing values define the minimum percentage price change required to reverse a trend line or plot a new pivot point. It filters out minor market noise by ignoring moves smaller than the chosen threshold. Smaller swing values generate more price cycles than larger values.
This calculator was generated in part by Gemini-3.
Cycle Duration Analysis: Upsides vs. Downsides
| Cycle Duration Summary Metrics | |
|---|---|
| Average Upside Duration: | 2,084.3 days (68.5 months) |
| Average Downside Duration: | 1,367.2 days (44.9 months) |
| Max Upside Duration: | 4,628 days |
| Min Upside Duration: | 151 days |
| Max Downside Duration: | 4,140 days |
| Min Downside Duration: | 122 days |
| Total Time Spent in Upside Phases: | 31,264 days (60.4%) |
| Total Time Spent in Downside Phases: | 20,508 days (39.6%) |
| Upside to Downside Duration Ratio: | 1.52x (Days Upside / Days Downside) |
Cycle Return Performance Analysis (Returns)
| Upside Phase Returns (Highest to Lowest Gain) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Cycle# Chart |
Timeframe | Gain (%) | Days |
| 1 | Cycle 5 |
1920-12-01 → 1929-09-01 Peak Price: $32.56 (Log: 3.4831) |
+191.86% | 3,196 |
| 2 | Cycle 6 |
1932-06-01 → 1937-02-01 Peak Price: $22.24 (Log: 3.1019) |
+138.45% | 1,706 |
| 3 | Cycle 14 |
1987-12-01 → 1999-12-01 Peak Price: $44.20 (Log: 3.7887) |
+119.42% | 4,383 |
| 4 | Cycle 15 |
2009-03-01 → 2021-11-01 Peak Price: $38.58 (Log: 3.6527) |
+106.35% | 4,628 |
| 5 | Cycle 13 |
1982-07-01 → 1987-08-01 Peak Price: $18.33 (Log: 2.9085) |
+101.54% | 1,857 |
| 6 | Cycle 9 |
1949-06-01 → 1956-03-01 Peak Price: $19.37 (Log: 2.9637) |
+75.88% | 2,465 |
| 7 | Cycle 8 |
1942-05-01 → 1946-04-01 Peak Price: $16.04 (Log: 2.7751) |
+63.38% | 1,431 |
| 8 | Cycle 10 |
1957-12-01 → 1966-01-01 Peak Price: $24.06 (Log: 3.1806) |
+56.53% | 2,953 |
| 9 | Cycle 3 |
1893-07-01 → 1901-06-01 Peak Price: $25.24 (Log: 3.2284) |
+56.47% | 2,891 |
| 10 | Cycle 2 |
1884-06-01 → 1892-04-01 Peak Price: $19.94 (Log: 2.9927) |
+43.47% | 2,861 |
| 11 | Cycle 4 |
1907-11-01 → 1909-08-01 Peak Price: $15.42 (Log: 2.7357) |
+37.58% | 639 |
| 12 | Cycle 7 |
1938-04-01 → 1939-10-01 Peak Price: $16.82 (Log: 2.8226) |
+35.53% | 548 |
| 13 | Cycle 12 |
1974-12-01 → 1976-09-01 Peak Price: $11.81 (Log: 2.4689) |
+35.39% | 640 |
| 14 | Cycle 11 |
1970-07-01 → 1973-01-01 Peak Price: $18.71 (Log: 2.9291) |
+30.95% | 915 |
| 15 | Cycle 1 |
1881-01-01 → 1881-06-01 Peak Price: $19.03 (Log: 2.9460) |
+2.99% | 151 |
| Downside Phase Returns (Highest to Lowest Return) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Cycle# Chart |
Timeframe | Loss (%) | Days |
| 1 | Cycle 13 |
1987-08-01 → 1987-12-01 Peak Price: $18.33 (Log: 2.9085) |
-31.40% | 122 |
| 2 | Cycle 2 |
1892-04-01 → 1893-07-01 Peak Price: $19.94 (Log: 2.9927) |
-32.90% | 456 |
| 3 | Cycle 9 |
1956-03-01 → 1957-12-01 Peak Price: $19.37 (Log: 2.9637) |
-34.85% | 640 |
| 4 | Cycle 15 |
2021-11-01 → 2022-10-01 Peak Price: $38.58 (Log: 3.6527) |
-35.39% | 334 |
| 5 | Cycle 1 |
1881-06-01 → 1884-06-01 Peak Price: $19.03 (Log: 2.9460) |
-38.80% | 1,096 |
| 6 | Cycle 10 |
1966-01-01 → 1970-07-01 Peak Price: $24.06 (Log: 3.1806) |
-56.10% | 1,642 |
| 7 | Cycle 8 |
1946-04-01 → 1949-06-01 Peak Price: $16.04 (Log: 2.7751) |
-57.01% | 1,157 |
| 8 | Cycle 12 |
1976-09-01 → 1982-07-01 Peak Price: $11.81 (Log: 2.4689) |
-57.58% | 2,129 |
| 9 | Cycle 6 |
1937-02-01 → 1938-04-01 Peak Price: $22.24 (Log: 3.1019) |
-63.46% | 424 |
| 10 | Cycle 7 |
1939-10-01 → 1942-05-01 Peak Price: $16.82 (Log: 2.8226) |
-68.13% | 943 |
| 11 | Cycle 11 |
1973-01-01 → 1974-12-01 Peak Price: $18.71 (Log: 2.9291) |
-81.40% | 699 |
| 12 | Cycle 3 |
1901-06-01 → 1907-11-01 Peak Price: $25.24 (Log: 3.2284) |
-86.85% | 2,344 |
| 13 | Cycle 4 |
1909-08-01 → 1920-12-01 Peak Price: $15.42 (Log: 2.7357) |
-117.12% | 4,140 |
| 14 | Cycle 14 |
1999-12-01 → 2009-03-01 Peak Price: $44.20 (Log: 3.7887) |
-119.95% | 3,378 |
| 15 | Cycle 5 |
1929-09-01 → 1932-06-01 Peak Price: $32.56 (Log: 3.4831) |
-176.57% | 1,004 |
Cycle Return Performance Analysis (Durations)
| Upside Phase Durations (Longest to Shortest) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Cycle# Chart |
Timeframe | Days | Gain (%) |
| 1 | Cycle 15 |
2009-03-01 → 2021-11-01 Peak Price: $38.58 (Log: 3.6527) |
4,628 | +106.35% |
| 2 | Cycle 14 |
1987-12-01 → 1999-12-01 Peak Price: $44.20 (Log: 3.7887) |
4,383 | +119.42% |
| 3 | Cycle 5 |
1920-12-01 → 1929-09-01 Peak Price: $32.56 (Log: 3.4831) |
3,196 | +191.86% |
| 4 | Cycle 10 |
1957-12-01 → 1966-01-01 Peak Price: $24.06 (Log: 3.1806) |
2,953 | +56.53% |
| 5 | Cycle 3 |
1893-07-01 → 1901-06-01 Peak Price: $25.24 (Log: 3.2284) |
2,891 | +56.47% |
| 6 | Cycle 2 |
1884-06-01 → 1892-04-01 Peak Price: $19.94 (Log: 2.9927) |
2,861 | +43.47% |
| 7 | Cycle 9 |
1949-06-01 → 1956-03-01 Peak Price: $19.37 (Log: 2.9637) |
2,465 | +75.88% |
| 8 | Cycle 13 |
1982-07-01 → 1987-08-01 Peak Price: $18.33 (Log: 2.9085) |
1,857 | +101.54% |
| 9 | Cycle 6 |
1932-06-01 → 1937-02-01 Peak Price: $22.24 (Log: 3.1019) |
1,706 | +138.45% |
| 10 | Cycle 8 |
1942-05-01 → 1946-04-01 Peak Price: $16.04 (Log: 2.7751) |
1,431 | +63.38% |
| 11 | Cycle 11 |
1970-07-01 → 1973-01-01 Peak Price: $18.71 (Log: 2.9291) |
915 | +30.95% |
| 12 | Cycle 12 |
1974-12-01 → 1976-09-01 Peak Price: $11.81 (Log: 2.4689) |
640 | +35.39% |
| 13 | Cycle 4 |
1907-11-01 → 1909-08-01 Peak Price: $15.42 (Log: 2.7357) |
639 | +37.58% |
| 14 | Cycle 7 |
1938-04-01 → 1939-10-01 Peak Price: $16.82 (Log: 2.8226) |
548 | +35.53% |
| 15 | Cycle 1 |
1881-01-01 → 1881-06-01 Peak Price: $19.03 (Log: 2.9460) |
151 | +2.99% |
| Downside Phase Durations (Longest to Shortest) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Cycle# Chart |
Timeframe | Days | Loss (%) |
| 1 | Cycle 4 |
1909-08-01 → 1920-12-01 Peak Price: $15.42 (Log: 2.7357) |
4,140 | -117.12% |
| 2 | Cycle 14 |
1999-12-01 → 2009-03-01 Peak Price: $44.20 (Log: 3.7887) |
3,378 | -119.95% |
| 3 | Cycle 3 |
1901-06-01 → 1907-11-01 Peak Price: $25.24 (Log: 3.2284) |
2,344 | -86.85% |
| 4 | Cycle 12 |
1976-09-01 → 1982-07-01 Peak Price: $11.81 (Log: 2.4689) |
2,129 | -57.58% |
| 5 | Cycle 10 |
1966-01-01 → 1970-07-01 Peak Price: $24.06 (Log: 3.1806) |
1,642 | -56.10% |
| 6 | Cycle 8 |
1946-04-01 → 1949-06-01 Peak Price: $16.04 (Log: 2.7751) |
1,157 | -57.01% |
| 7 | Cycle 1 |
1881-06-01 → 1884-06-01 Peak Price: $19.03 (Log: 2.9460) |
1,096 | -38.80% |
| 8 | Cycle 5 |
1929-09-01 → 1932-06-01 Peak Price: $32.56 (Log: 3.4831) |
1,004 | -176.57% |
| 9 | Cycle 7 |
1939-10-01 → 1942-05-01 Peak Price: $16.82 (Log: 2.8226) |
943 | -68.13% |
| 10 | Cycle 11 |
1973-01-01 → 1974-12-01 Peak Price: $18.71 (Log: 2.9291) |
699 | -81.40% |
| 11 | Cycle 9 |
1956-03-01 → 1957-12-01 Peak Price: $19.37 (Log: 2.9637) |
640 | -34.85% |
| 12 | Cycle 2 |
1892-04-01 → 1893-07-01 Peak Price: $19.94 (Log: 2.9927) |
456 | -32.90% |
| 13 | Cycle 6 |
1937-02-01 → 1938-04-01 Peak Price: $22.24 (Log: 3.1019) |
424 | -63.46% |
| 14 | Cycle 15 |
2021-11-01 → 2022-10-01 Peak Price: $38.58 (Log: 3.6527) |
334 | -35.39% |
| 15 | Cycle 13 |
1987-08-01 → 1987-12-01 Peak Price: $18.33 (Log: 2.9085) |
122 | -31.40% |