S&P 500 CAPE Valuations & Forward Returns Calculator

This calculator uses the CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio), developed by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, alongside forward return projections to analyze historical S&P 500 performance and provide insight into future stock returns. In general, forward future returns are lower starting from a relatively high CAPE ratio versus starting from a lower CAPE ratio. This makes sense because buying at historical high prices usually leads to lower future returns than buying at historical lower prices.

All computations, charts and tables are based on monthly real (inflation-adjusted) prices and CAPE ratios from January 1881 through the present for the S&P 500 from ONLINE DATA ROBERT SHILLER.

To examine the impact of a CAPE value on future returns simply select a CAPE value and number of years forward on th input form.

S&P 500 Log10 Adjusted Monthly Real Price Path

Historical S&P 500 CAPE Ratio Path

Top 5 Highest Historical CAPE Ratios

Rank	Date (Year-Month)	CAPE Ratio
1	1999-12	44.20
2	1999-07	43.83
3	2000-01	43.77
4	2000-04	43.53
5	2000-03	43.22

Metric / Parameter	Value
Forward Holding Period (N Years)
Selected CAPE Threshold (Shared for Monthly & Annual)
Current S&P 500 CAPE Ratio (2026-09)	40.58

Forward Return Color Legend

≥ 5.0% Return

0.0% to 4.9% Return

-4.9% to -0.1% Return

≤ -5.0% Return

1. Monthly S&P 500 Real 10-Year Forward Returns vs. CAPE Ratio

Metric	All CAPE Ratios	CAPE ≥ 35
Total Returns Calculated	1,629	34
Positive Returns (> 0%)	1,118 (68.6%)	0 (0%)
Non-Positive Returns (≤ 0%)	511 (31.4%)	34 (100%)
Maximum Return	13.73% (1920-05)	-0.5% (1998-05)
Minimum Return	-10.31% (1911-06)	-7.51% (1999-03)

2. Annual (January-Only) S&P 500 Real 10-Year Forward Returns vs. CAPE Ratio

Metric	All CAPE Ratios	CAPE ≥ 35
Total Returns Calculated	136	3
Positive Returns (> 0%)	92 (67.6%)	0 (0%)
Non-Positive Returns (≤ 0%)	44 (32.4%)	3 (100%)
Maximum Return	12.42% (1989-01)	-2.66% (2001-01)
Minimum Return	-9.4% (1911-01)	-5.99% (1999-01)

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