Bitcoin Near-Term Top Bounded at $100,000?
The following chart of Bitcoin weekly closes plotted on a log scale shows four major tops and their successive declines (top / previous top). The declines are shown as 63.76X, 16.05X and 3.48X for the last top made in November 2021. These tops coincide with the upside and downside price cycles associated with Bitcoin halvings.
The chart shows a double top for the tops made in March 2021 and November 2021.
The chart pattern of the declining rates of increase (green lines) for the three tops associated with the first three Bitcoin halvings suggests that the top for the fourth halving in 2024 (green dashed line) will be bounded by $100,000.
The dashed green line of future Bitcoin prices is a hypothetical price path that shows Bitcoin reaching near $100,000 after the fourth halving in 2024.
And if the pattern of decreasing gains for successive tops continues for all future halvings, Bitcoin has a very low probability of reaching $500,000 to one million dollars as some people have predicted. Here is a prediction to over twelve million dollars by 2031 from Robert Breedlove.
Obviously any prediction made with only four data points, particularly with the high volatility of Bitcoin, needs to taken with some skepticism. Nevertheless, the chart suggests a trend of highs that are increasing at a decreasing rate.